The Bible Skeptic: Failed Prophecy

Failed Prophecy

Why the Bible Cannot be the Inerrant, Inspired Word of God Based Upon the Fulfillment of Prophecy

Introduction

John Hellen, member of the Brooklyn Tabernacle Church [1] and author of the book, The Bible is No Fairy Tale!, argues that the Bible is the infallible, inspired Word of God. According to his book's Forward, written by Margarette D. Tropnas, Co-Leader of the New Hope Outreach Ministry of the Brooklyn Tabernacle Church, "[t]he Lord..placed it in [Mr. Hellen's] heart to write this book in order to defend the Word of God against the attacks of the skeptics." Ms. Tropnas tells us that Mr. Hellen "feels it necessary that Christians not sit down and let these attacks [from skeptics] continue without presenting the truth about God and the Bible." (p. 13) We may ask, what exactly is that "truth" that Mr. Hellen has to offer to counter skeptical "attacks" on the Bible and Christianity? The truth, in Mr. Hellen's opinion, is that God is real and that the Bible is His infallible and inspired Word. How does Mr. Hellen go about proving this assertion? By arguing that "one of the ways to prove [that the Bible is the inspired Word of God] is through the study of its prophecies, all of which came true." (p. 21, emphasis mine) Mr. Hellen notes that the biblical book of Deuteronomy 18:18-22 "clearly states that when a prophet speaks the words given to him by God, these prophecies all shall come to pass:

I will raise up for them a prophet like you from among their brothers; I will put my words in his mouth, and he will tell them everything I command him. If anyone does not listen to my words that the prophet speaks in my name, I myself will call him to account. But a prophet who presumes to speak in my name anything I have not commanded him to say, or a prophet who speaks in the name of other gods, must be put to death." You may say to yourselves, "How can we know when a message has not been spoken by the Lord?" If what a prophet proclaims in the name of the LORD does not take place or come true, that is a message the LORD has not spoken. That prophet has spoken presumptuously. Do not be afraid of him." (p. 23, emphasis original)

And, Mr. Hellen argues, we can know the prophetic words of the Bible were given by God because 2 Timothy 3:16-17 "teaches that all scriptures of the Bible come from God's inspiration." (p. 22)

All scripture is inspired by God and is useful for teaching, for reproof, for correction, and for training in righteousness, so that everyone who belongs to God may be proficient, equipped for every good work.

Furthermore, Mr. Hellen suggests that the scientific method can be applied to the Bible and this will help affirm the truth and reliability of the Scriptures. "If the reliability of a math or scientific book can be judged by objective scientific principles, then shouldn't the reliability of the Bible be judged the same way?" (p 23) I completely agree with Mr. Hellen that the Bible is open to scientific questioning and investigation and scrutiny. It really is the best way to determine the Bible's reliability.

So, if we accept Mr. Hellen's hypothesis that the Bible is the infallible and inspired Word of God and that this hypothesis can be tested by examining the prophecies of the Bible, all of which would need to have been fulfilled in their entirety for his hypothesis to be true, what happens if we do exactly as he suggests in his Introduction and "read [his] book with an open mind, and then study the Bible and the historical documents" for ourselves? (p. 19) For Mr. Hellen's hypothesis to stand, every prophecy of the Bible must be shown to have been historically fulfilled exactly as written. Every prophecy. If we uncover just ONE failed biblical prophecy, Mr. Hellen's hypothesis falls apart.

In addition to writing this book in defense of God's Word, Ms. Tropnas mentions that Mr. Hellen also writes lesson plans for the church's Bible studies at its shelters. She notes that these lessons "are based fully on God's Word with none of man's spin added." (p.13, emphasis mine). Let's examine Mr. Hellen's claim that biblical prophecy, fully fulfilled, is evidence that the Bible is infallible and inerrant, and if this can be done with "none of man's spin added." To begin, in the spirit of scientific inquiry, we should define exactly what science can and cannot examine and then look at the typical explanations for prophetic proclamations in the context of these scientific limitations.

The Realm of Science

"We live in a universe made up of matter and energy, a material universe. To understand and explain this material universe is the goal of science...Science requires the testing of explanations of the natural world against nature itself..." (p. 3; Evolution vs. Creationism: an introduction). As Eugenie Scott, Executive Director of the National Center for Science Education, notes in the above quote, science is restricted to studying only that which occurs and resides in the material universe. Science cannot study what is beyond nature, if such a thing even exists. Science cannot offer explanations that include the miraculous, the supernatural or the divine. This is not because science refuses to "believe" in the supernatural, but because science, by definition, is restricted to operating only within the natural universe. Being restricted to examine only those phenomena which occur in our natural universe, explanations of those phenomena must also be limited to causes within the natural universe. So, for example, if a particular phenomenon occurs requiring explanation, science can only look within the natural universe to explain said phenomenon. Either that, or science must simply withhold an explanation until more and/or better data are received regarding the phenomena with which an explanation can be offered. Science, by its definition, cannot offer supernatural spirits or powers, unavailable to scientific investigation, as an explanation for any phenomena occurring within the natural universe. Explanations which refer to causes outside the natural universe are not open to scientific testing and, as such, cannot be offered –scientifically—as explanations for any observable phenomenon. If an event occurs and it is offered that a supernatural entity was responsible for the event, how can science test for the supernatural entity? If the supernatural entity offered as an explanation for a given phenomenon is a ghost, for example, what do we supposedly know about ghosts that allow us to test scientifically for them? Some might claim that the presence of a ghost causes the air temperature surrounding the entity to drop significantly. We can scientifically test for a drop in air temperature but how can we know if such a drop was caused by a ghost? How do ghosts affect air temperature? Air temperature is a measure of the average energy of motion of particles in a given section of the atmosphere. So, the faster the motion of the particles in a given region of the air, the "warmer" human beings perceive the temperature to be. Many things can affect the motion of air particles, the most common of which is solar radiation. Solar radiation, or solar energy, is created at the core of the sun when hydrogen atoms are fused into helium. This process creates incredible heat that causes atoms to discharge photons. The process is complex and there's no reason to get into details here, but it is the release of these photons from the sun that eventually reach the earth and excite particles in the air (and in the ground, in surrounding structures, etc.). This bombardment of photons causes surrounding particles to move faster and this is interpreted by human beings as heat. If it is suggested that a ghost can cause particles in the regions of air through which it moves to slow down (become "colder"), the necessary scientific question is how can a supernatural entity affect physical particles of matter in the same way photons released by the sun due to nuclear reactions affect particles of matter? Simply stating a ghost causes air to be cooler opens up a myriad of other questions in addition to how the entity can affect air temperature. For example, where does the ghost exist? Is it a "living" thing? How does it sustain itself? What does it do? How does it perceive? Is it conscious? How does it have consciousness? And so on and so forth.

Ghosts, or any supernatural explanation, are extremely complex and often open up more questions than they solve. By definition, since anything supernatural exists outside the natural universe, supernatural explanations cannot be fully tested by scientific methods and are therefore unfalsifiable [2] If no readily available natural reason exists for how a region of air in an old house suddenly drops in temperature, assigning that reason to a ghost does not ultimately solve the mystery. How can we test if a ghost is not responsible for a drop in air temperature? Even if we can tentatively offer that a drop in air temperature is due to a nearby open window, how can we falsify that the window was not opened by a ghost or that a gust of wind from the window was not caused by a ghost? For this reason, supernatural explanations are not part of science. Therefore, when investigating claims of prophecy, supernatural explanations for a prophecy's accuracy cannot be confirmed by science. Prophecy is the foreknowledge of future events, and that foreknowledge must come from a supernatural source because it concerns things beyond the natural power of human intelligence. Human beings, as part of their biological structure, do not have the natural power to have knowledge of future events. So, for claims of prophecy, science by definition must look only to natural explanations for a prophecy's "fulfillment."

How Science Explains Prophecy

Since science cannot offer or investigate supernatural causes to explain successful prophecies, we should visit a number of the ways science does explain what apparently looks like accurate foreknowledge of future events. One explanation for accurate prophecy comes from the very real, and very common, form of educated predictions. Educated predictions basically forecast future events based upon some current knowledge of circumstances which to a high degree of probability will lead to a certain future outcome. For example, every year American football teams (NFL) are deeply studied to predict a probable team which will end the season with a win in the league's championship game. Numerous factors are considered and examined, from previous performance to team personnel, to make an educated guess as to which team will win the most games in a season and eventually be successful in the championship game. Likewise, weather forecasters study atmospheric patterns and conditions in order to predict future weather events. Certain atmospheric air pressures, movements of air masses, heating and cooling, can aid forecasters in predicting with a fair amount of accuracy weather conditions many days into the future. Economists also study financial trends and current conditions to forecast future events in a nation's economy and which investments may be profitable (or not) on the stock market. Such educated predictions rely solely on current knowledge and do not actually foresee with unerring accuracy future events. Although such predictions are usually more accurate about future events than is mere guessing, none of the predictions come from a supernatural intelligence.

Science can also explain the "accuracy" of certain prophecies by pointing to a particular prophecy's vagueness. For example, certain statements regarding "global warming" include the prediction that "some species will go extinct" as the result of global temperatures rising. Since species are going extinct all the time, and the prediction is not specific about which exact species will go extinct or how exactly the rise in global temperature will affect the species, the "prophecy" has a near 100% chance of being true. It will be fulfilled since sometime in the near future, somewhere on the earth some species will in fact go extinct, even if it is a species of bacteria. Newspaper horoscopes are notorious for making vague predictions. One such horoscope may read, "You currently don't have as much money as you'd like, but if you're careful and plan wisely, you can increase your finances in the coming months." Most everyone, regardless of under which sun sign [3] they were born, does not have as much money as they'd like. Careful and wise financial planning is always likely to increase anyone's wealth to some degree. Keeping with the theme of this paper, the Bible's New Testament predicts certain "signs" which will accompany the "End Times" when the world as we know it will cease to exist and Jesus Christ will inaugurate a new world. The New Testament book of Matthew states,

"And you shall hear of wars and rumors of wars. See that you are not troubled; for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet. For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. And there will be famines, pestilences, and earthquakes in various places." (24:6-7)

However, wars, famine, pestilence and earthquakes are fairly common and occur together in every age. As such, every generation of Christians has adherents who are convinced by these "signs" that the end is near.

Finally, many "accurate" prophecies can be attributed to having been made after the events they supposedly predicted. This is known in certain skeptical circles as "postdiction." For example, after a baby is born, a parent upon seeing the sex of the child may exclaim, "I always knew it would be a boy/girl!" when, in fact, no such prediction before the fact had ever been made. A famous example of postdiction occurred in 1981. It was claimed that in January of that year a "psychic" "predicted" on a televised broadcast that the current US President, Ronald Reagan, would be shot by someone with the initials "J.H." On March 30, 1981 President Reagan was indeed shot by a man with the initials "J.H.", John Hinkley. However, it was discovered that the tape of the January broadcast of the psychic prediction had been tampered with and the so-called prophecy had in fact been recorded by the "psychic" on March 31st, a day following the shooting. The new footage was then edited into the prior broadcast. [4] Many biblical scholars argue [5] that the "predictions" about the fall of Jerusalem in the New Testament [6] were written after the event of Rome's attack on the city and destruction of the Temple in 70 CE. Because genuine foreknowledge of the future is not scientific, biblical scholars dedicated to the scientific method argue that the predictions of the Temple's destruction must have been written after the fact. This helps scholars doing a scientific investigation of the scriptures date the books in which such predictions are found to after the Temple's fall.

If we try to convince a believer in genuine prophecy to apply the above scientific explanations to biblical prophecy we will probably be greeted with stony silence…or worse! For example, one Christian internet apologist writes regarding biblical prophecy:

Prophecy is the fingerprint of God on his Word. It is there for our benefit. It is not fraudulent, nor is it mistaken. Like anything else there are things in prophecy we don't understand. Don't start with the assumption that the problem is the Bible. Assume [the problem is with] you and ask God for help.

The only chance to convince a believer in genuine prophecy that the prophecies of the Bible could not be of divine origin is to find examples of actual failed prophecies. But before we try our hand at such a study, let's first answer the question of why skeptics are skeptical about prophecy claims in the first place.

Skeptics and the Principle of Parsimony

We've already examined the methods science can use to explain so-called "accurate" prophecies. The skeptical approach (or "attack" using Ms. Tropnas's word) to biblical prophecy is in the spirit of scientific inquiry. Skeptics accept the scientific method and understand that science cannot test for supernatural explanations for prophetic accuracy. Furthermore, skeptics note that time and again when science investigates a question, the answer has never turned out to be of supernatural origin. For example, in the past some diseases were thought to be caused by demons. The Babylonian Talmud, a collection of rabbinic teachings pertaining to Jewish law, ethics, philosophy, customs and history compiled by Jewish scholars in the 5th century BCE, cautions men from having sexual intercourse with their wives immediately after returning from the toilet or risk possession by a demon, causing him to father children with epilepsy:

On coming from a privy a man should not have sexual intercourse till he has waited long enough to walk half a mil, because the demon of the privy is with him from that time; if he does, his children will be epileptic. (Gittin 70a)

When scientists took a crack at researching the cause of disease, however, they were not free to invoke explanations which included things like toilet demons. Scientists investigating the cause of disease needed to find a natural explanation which kept their research firmly grounded in the material universe. Blaming demons for disease would have required an explanation of the demons themselves. Where did demons come from? Why did they exist? How did they exist? How did they interact with the natural world? And so on and so forth. What was needed was a simpler explanation; an explanation that did not ask more questions than it answered. Today, diseases are known to have a variety of natural causes, none of which are supernatural in origin. And, with such natural explanations come reliable cures and treatments. Science has proven itself time and again as a dependable tool for gaining knowledge because, in large part, it does not refer to anything outside the natural universe. Science uses the material universe to explain material phenomena. The answers of science are the simplest possible. It may not seem that science has simple answers, but the answers that science uncovers actually answer the questions being asked, and any related questions such explanations may spawn are equally answerable within the natural universe. The precept of relying upon the simplest of all possible answers to a question is known as the Principle of Parsimony.

The Principle of Parsimony is followed by all of science and guides skeptics when investigating extraordinary claims. The Principle basically states that the simplest of two competing theories is to be preferred. And by "simplest" what is meant is that if a theory creates more questions than it answers, it is too complex and should be rejected in favor of a less complex theory. So, returning to our example of disease, the theory of demon possession is far more complex than the theory of genetic mutation. While it may be "easier" and "simpler" to blame demons for disease, demons create more questions than they answer as noted above. Genetic mutation is a complex solution, too, but the questions it raises are answerable within the natural universe. For this reason, skeptics are extremely suspicious about claims of genuine prophecy since such claims would necessarily involve a supernatural intelligence. It is not a case that skeptics reject the supernatural a priori, but supernatural explanations run against the Principle of Parsimony. There is a maxim that goes around in skeptical circles which states, "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." And, for most skeptics, extraordinary evidence of the extraordinary supernatural world is lacking. When one claims a prophecy was fulfilled, one is required to demonstrate not only that the prophecy was genuine but how such foreknowledge could be gained without begging too many unanswerable questions. Typically, advocates of fulfilled biblical prophecy do not offer this additional extraordinary evidence to back up their assertions and thus they find they have a difficult time convincing skeptics of their claims.

An Examination of Biblical Prophecy (None of Man's Spin Added)

We return now to an examination of Mr. Hellen's claim that the Bible is the infallible and inspired word of a supernatural being because it presents demonstrable instances of fulfilled prophecy. To be sure, Mr. Hellen presents chapter after chapter of what he claims are examples of fulfilled biblical prophecies. For each and every one a skeptic can and will dismiss them as educated predictions, prophecies employing vagueness or prophecies written after the fact. [7] Skeptics do this because they are guided by the limitations of science and by the Principle of Parsimony. Without clear evidence of a genuinely fulfilled prophecy, there is no other rational conclusion to reach. For example, Mr. Hellen mentions (p.86) the "prophecy" given in Malachi 3:1-2 which was "fulfilled" by Jesus when he cleansed the Temple (e.g. Mark 11:15-19). However, the "prophecy" is so vague, and lacks any mention of Jesus, the money changers, or any of the other details of the New Testament story it is easily dismissed by skeptics. The passages read:

"See, I will send my messenger, who will prepare the way before me. Then suddenly the Lord you are seeking will come to his temple; the messenger of the covenant, whom you desire, will come," says the LORD Almighty. But who can endure the day of his coming? Who can stand when he appears? For he will be like a refiner's fire or a launderer's soap.

This does not mean that the conversation between believer and skeptic is at an impasse, however. We can still examine the Bible for genuinely failed prophecies. A failed prophecy need not be explained as a misguided guess, a generality or certainly as having been written after a fact. A failed prophecy is just that: a prediction that clearly did not come to pass. And, should we find such a failure, the believer cannot dismiss it easily, either, if we read the Scriptures plainly "with none of man's spin added." A clearly failed prophecy breaks the apologists' assertion that the Bible is inerrant and inspired because each and every prophecy of the scriptures was fulfilled to its fullest. A prophecy, given such restrictions, simply cannot be shown in any way to have failed. So, if we can find clear evidence of a failed prophecy, an assertion like Mr. Hellen's that the Bible is the inspired and infallible Word of God is proven false. A failed prophecy would mean the Bible is not the inspired, infallible Word of God.

The New Testament book of 1 Thessalonians provides us the first of three clearly failed prophecies from the Bible that we will consider. 1 Thessalonians is actually a letter written by Paul to a fledgling congregation of newly converted Christians in the Roman city of Thessalonica. Scholars believe it was written in about 50-51 CE and is the earliest extant Christian document, written less than twenty years after the death of Jesus (see The Oxford Bible Commentary, p.1199). The letter was written by Paul in response to news he apparently heard regarding the Christian community in Thessalonica from his companion, Timothy. The letter begins with Paul giving thanks to God for the members of the fledgling congregation and extolling their exemplary behavior. Throughout the letter Paul addresses the community directly. For example,

We always give thanks to God for all of you and mention you in our prayers, constantly remembering before our God and Father your work of faith and labor of love and steadfastness of hope in our Lord Jesus Christ. For we know, brothers and sisters beloved by God, that he has chosen you, because our message of the gospel came to you not in word only, but also in power and in the Holy Spirit and with full conviction; just as you know what kind of persons we proved to be among you for your sake. And you became imitators of us and of the Lord, for in spite of persecution you received the word with joy inspired by the Holy Spirit, so that you became an example to all the believers in Macedonia and in Achaia. (1:2-7)

Paul names his travelling companions, Silvanus and Timothy, in the salutation of his letter, referring to the three of them as "we" and then referring to the Thessalonians to whom he is writing as "you." He says "We [Paul, Silvanus, Timothy] give thanks to God for all of you [Thessalonica Christians]." He states that "We [Paul, Silvanus, Timothy] know…that [God] has chosen you [Thessalonica Christians]" pointing out that "the gospel came to you [Thessalonica Christians]" and that "in spite of persecution you [Thessalonica Christians] received the word with joy" and "you [Thessalonica Christians] became an example to all the believers in Macedonia and in Achaia." Clearly, the letter is directed from a specific group of people (the "we" of Paul, Silvanus and Timothy) to another specific group of people (the members of the Thessalonian community of Christians). However, apparently some members of the congregation had died since Paul had first formed them and this was a concern to the community. They were led to believe that Jesus was to be returning soon to collect them (it had already been 20 years or so since his death) and yet some believers were already beginning to die and Jesus still had not come. Paul addressed this concern in his letter stating,

For this we declare to you by the word of the Lord, that we who are alive, who are left until the coming of the Lord, will by no means precede those who have died. For the Lord himself, with a cry of command, with the archangel's call and with the sound of God's trumpet, will descend from heaven, and the dead in Christ will rise first. Then we who are alive, who are left, will be caught up in the clouds together with them to meet the Lord in the air; and so we will be with the Lord forever. (4:15-17)

Here, again, we have the pattern of "we" (Paul, Silvanus and Timothy) addressing "you" (the Thessalonian Christians). Does Paul know the exact day and hour of these events, however? No, he doesn't, but again, his letter clearly indicates that he believed that day and hour would come while he and the Thessalonian Christians were still alive. He writes in 5:1-4,

Now, brothers [i.e. Thessalonian Christians], about times and dates we [Paul, Silvanus, Timothy] do not need to write to you [Thessalonian Christians], for you [Thessalonian Christians] know very well that the day of the Lord will come like a thief in the night. While people are saying, "Peace and safety," destruction will come on them suddenly, as labor pains on a pregnant woman, and they will not escape. But you [Thessalonian Christians], brothers, are not in darkness so that this day should surprise you [Thessalonian Christians] like a thief.

However, clearly those living to hear these words (Paul, Silvanus, Timothy and the entire living Thessalonian Christian community) did not live to see the return of Jesus, to hear the archangel's call with the sound of God's trumpet, to see the Lord descend from heaven and be caught up in the clouds together with those who had already died to be with the Lord forever. The Lord never did come as a thief in the night while people were saying, "Peace and safety." Clearly, this prophecy of Paul's failed. We now have our single example of a failed prophecy which destroys Mr. Hellen's hypothesis that the Bible is the infallible and inspired Word of God because each and every prophecy contained within can be shown to have been fulfilled in its entirety.

But it can't be that simple, can it? Surely, Mr. Hellen was aware of the prophecy of 1 Thessalonians and he addressed it in his book. He did not. This prophecy is completely ignored in Mr. Hellen's "scientific" study of biblical prophecy as evidence of the Bible's inerrancy and inspiration. Ironically, however, Mr. Hellen points to 1 Thessalonians 5:19-20, which followed on the heels of Paul's prophecy that the day of Lord's return would not surprise the Thessalonian Christians, in which he "advises the Thessalonians to believe the prophecies and test their accuracy" (p.194)! It's hard to test the accuracy of such a prophecy if one is dead!

However, other apologists have tried to explain away this failed prophecy. One has gone so far as to suggest that the prophecy is deliberately vague (by not naming an exact date and time), based upon Paul's ignorance of Jesus's return, and so the apparent imminence of Jesus's return ("we who are alive") was used only because poor Paul didn't know any better! [8] However, as Mr. Hellen notes, biblical prophecy does not come just from individuals like Paul making "best guesses." Genuine biblical prophecy comes from God. Its accuracy is necessary to confirm its divine origin. Recall Mr. Hellen noted Deuteronomy 18:18-22 "clearly states that when a prophet speaks the words [are] given to him by God." If Paul's prophecy regarding the return of Jesus during the lifetime of those living is a reflection of ignorance it is not Paul's ignorance but ultimately the ignorance of God! And, besides, there is nothing whatsoever vague about the prophecy of 1 Thessalonians 4:15-17. Clearly, Jesus's return was to occur in the lifetimes of Paul, his companions and those to whom he was writing. Other apologists try to get around the clear failure of Paul's prophecy in 1 Thessalonians by suggesting that this section of the letter is being addressed to any Christian alive at the time of the event. However, as we've seen, there is nothing in the text of the letter to suggest that these passages are a shift from Paul's earlier writing style. He began by referencing himself and his companions as "we" and addressing the Thessalonian community as "you." So, clearly, without appealing to any of man's spin on the text, when Paul refers to "we who are alive" he is referencing himself, his companions, the Thessalonian community and any other Christian alive at the time of the letter's composition. If we're going to entertain the assertion that 1 Thessalonians 4:15-17 was written by a true prophet who had the foreknowledge that he, and those to whom he was writing, would be dead when these events occurred, we'd expect the text to read something more like this:

For this we declare to you by the word of the Lord, that those who are alive, who are left until the coming of the Lord, will by no means precede those of us who have died. For the Lord himself, with a cry of command, with the archangel's call and with the sound of God's trumpet, will descend from heaven, and the dead in Christ will rise first. Then those who are alive, who are left, will be caught up in the clouds together with us to meet the Lord in the air; and so we will be with the Lord forever.

So, for apologists to spin this into a prophecy about some unknown time in the future is clearly wrong from a literary standpoint, and, funnily enough, doing so renders it too vague to be considered a genuine prophecy.

But, while we've just uncovered one clearly failed prophecy which Mr. Hellen ignores in his book, a failed prophecy which falsifies his hypothesis regarding fulfilled prophecy and the inerrancy and divine inspiration of the Bible, let's not stop there. Most seriously devoted Christians will have a mental safety mechanism which they use to excuse such clear demonstrations of the failure of their holy text. What we need to do is drive the point home. Are there any other, perhaps clearer, examples of failed biblical prophecy? Indeed there are, and again, we discover that discussions of these prophecies are missing from Mr. Hellen's book.

Consider Isaiah 17:1,

An oracle concerning Damascus: "See, Damascus will no longer be a city but will become a heap of ruins."

The context of Isaiah is extraordinarily complex and we needn't dwell on the all the scholarly ink spilled in the study of this book here. We need only note that Isaiah 17 is part of a prophecy set within the Syro-Ephraimite war (735-732 BCE) in which the Aramean (Syrian) and Israelite (Ephraim) nations were allied to resist Assyrian expansion into their area. The two nations had also allied against Judah, besieging Jerusalem in order to force the Judeans to join their coalition. The oracle is from Judah's perspective against Damascus, the capital city of the Arameans. Clearly, the prophecy predicted that Damascus would turn into a "heap of ruins" because of its involvement with the attack on Jerusalem. Indeed, Damascus fell in 732 BCE to the Assyrians. However, it never became a heap of ruins. In fact, archaeological research in and around Damascus suggests that the area may have been occupied since the latter half of the 7th millennium BCE (about 8300 years ago). However, historical records indicate that Damascus was not an important city until settlement by the aforementioned Aramaeans in the 11th century BCE. It is one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world. It has never ceased to be a city from before the time of Isaiah's "prophecy."

Why would a prophecy like Isaiah 17:1 be missing from Mr. Hellen's book? Probably, like many other evangelical Christians, Mr. Hellen believes this is a FUTURE prophecy, yet to be fulfilled. However, a far distant future fulfillment is clearly not the context of the oracle. The prophecy, as already noted, is within the Syro-Ephraimite war of 735-732 BCE. Those Christians eager for the Second Coming of Christ are the most likely to assign a future fulfillment to the passage. Again, because the prophecy is obviously a failed one, apologists will try to excuse this flop by giving it some nonspecific, noncommittal future context. As one apologist writes,

In the very near future, Damascus will once again play a major role in human events. The prophet Isaiah provides us with God's commentary on a future conflict between Damascus and Israel, and in so doing, he reveals certain prophecies which have been partially fulfilled in the past. However, the ultimate fulfillment of Isaiah 17 remains in the future. The current existence of Damascus, which will one day cease to be a city, as well as the historical absence of the coalition of nations prophesied to attack Israel and be destroyed by God, is proof that Isaiah 17 prophesies events yet future.

Of course, acknowledging that some of the prophecy has already been "fulfilled" while pushing the failed portions off into the future is one disingenuous way to get around the obvious failure of the oracle. Given enough time, eventually Damascus may become a heap of ruins and it is this possibility (however faint it may be) to which apologists point. The fact that they are forced to push this section of the prophecy off into the future (or, assign it some "figurative" meaning such as "instead of a literal ‘heap of ruins' the city merely lost its prior power and prominence" [9]) is an acknowledgement by the apologist that a clear reading of the text provides proof of a failed prophecy. The apologist is then required to put man's spin on the text, ignore its context and clear meaning, and create a new interpretation to maintain the illusion of biblical inerrancy. Because no one can see into the future, regardless of what believers in biblical prophecy claim, skeptics cannot PROVE that the prophecy WILL fail if apologists are allowed a revised context for the passage. The prophecy can't have "failed" if what was foretold hasn't happened yet…even if parts of the prophecy were "fulfilled" 2700 years ago while others have yet to come to pass!

But we're still not done. If those who believe 1 Thessalonians refers to any Christian alive at the time of Jesus's return, and that Isaiah 17:1 is a future oracle regarding Damascus, in spite of the clear contexts of these passages, the weight of the final failed prophecy is sure to finalize the falsification that all of the Bible's prophecies were fulfilled in their entirety, providing evidence of the Bible's infallibility and divine inspiration. And, again, we discover this prophecy missing from Mr. Hellen's book. Ezekiel 29:8-12 reads,

I [God] will bring a sword against you and kill your men and their animals. Egypt will become a desolate wasteland. Then they will know that I am the Lord. Because you said, "The Nile is mine; I made it," therefore I am against you and against your streams, and I will make the land of Egypt a ruin and a desolate waste from Migdol to Aswan, as far as the border of Cush. No foot of man or animal will pass through it; no one will live there for forty years. I will make the land of Egypt desolate among devastated lands, and her cities will lie desolate forty years among ruined cities. And I will disperse the Egyptians among the nations and scatter them through the countries.

This prophecy cannot easily be assigned to some future event as our evangelical apologists habitually do (but it does not stop them from trying; see below). Prior to these verses the prophet Ezekiel is told to make this prophecy to the current (the passages are dated to January 7, 587 BCE [10]) pharaoh of Egypt:

...the word of the Lord came to me: Mortal, set your face against Pharaoh king of Egypt, and prophesy against him and against all of Egypt (29:1b-2; emphasis mine)

So, when verse 8 states, "I [God] will bring a sword against you and kill your men," these threats are directed specifically to the pharaoh of Egypt in 587 BCE, Hophra. This is made even clearer in verse 10: "I am against you (still referencing Pharaoh Hophra), and against your streams, and I will make the land of Egypt a ruin and a desolate waste from Migdol to Syrene, as far as the border of Ethiopia." Clearly, the dire events being predicted are meant to be played out before the very eyes of the pharaoh. Why would God broadcast a prophecy to the pharaoh of Egypt in 587 BCE if the events were not to take place for at least another 2500 years? Pharonic rule of Egypt came to an end with the arrival of Alexander the Great in 332 BCE. Today, Egypt is governed by a both an elected President and a Prime Minister who operate under a Constitution written in 1971. There are no more pharaohs in Egypt nor are there ever likely to be again. Thus, pushing this prophecy off into the future doesn't do the apologist much good since it ignores the clear context of the verses (i.e. to whom it was directed, Pharaoh Hophra) and the fact that Egypt has no more pharaohs!

The prophecy is obviously a failed one. Not during the lifetime of Hophra, nor any time since, has Egypt been a desolate wasteland. Egypt has been inhabited continually since the Paleolithic era, some 12,000 years ago. The first pharaoh, Narmer, established the world's first nation state in Egypt c. 3100 BCE. Attacked, invaded, besieged and conquered for centuries the land of Egypt has known the footsteps of both man and beast for millennia. Clearly, the prophecy of Ezekiel regarding the nation is a failure of biblical proportions.

However, our evangelical friends have a ready excuse as to why this prophecy appears to have failed and it is as uncreative as their excuse for the failure of Isaiah 17.

Next to Israel and the Revived Roman Empire, there is more prophecy in the Bible about the poor, dry, windswept nation of Egypt than any other. The nation's short-term future looks bleak, but its long-term future looks rosy. One prophecy indicates that God will use war to make a large part of Egypt desolate for 40 years (Ezekiel 29:8-12; also see Joel 3:19). There is debate over whether this has already been fulfilled. Those who think not point to the fact that all animals and all humans will completely avoid the area. That has never happened. So many expect a future nuclear attack with radioactive fallout that will make the area desolate.

For the Christian anxious to spin this prophecy away from its obvious failure, its fulfillment is not only something to occur in the near future but must be done with nuclear weapons! I'd venture to say Pharaoh Hophra never saw that coming!

Conclusion

Mr. Hellen promised that the Bible was the infallible and inspired Word of God because we could scientifically verify that each and every prophecy written within it was fulfilled in its entirety. We were also told in the Forward that Mr. Hellen's Bible lessons have none of man's spin. These lessons come straight from the Word of God. But what did we learn? Given that a great number of biblical prophecies can likely be explained as having been made after the events they pretend to predict, or are too vague to determine exact accuracy, or are educated guesses, or a variety of other natural, as opposed to supernatural, explanations, apologists for the Bible remain convinced that such prophecies are nonetheless genuine. The only way to falsify the claim that the Bible is inerrant and inspired because of the accuracy of its prophecies is to find genuinely failed predictions. For the assertion to be false only one such failed prophecy need be uncovered. Above, I gave three examples of failed biblical prophecies. In each, the plain reading of the text clearly demonstrated that the prophecies had indeed failed. Paul's prophecy regarding the second coming of Jesus within his lifetime and the lifetimes of those in the Thessalonian Christian congregation clearly never came to pass. Paul and his associates and everyone who knew him died nearly 2000 years ago and the world did not witness an archangel's call with the sound of God's trumpet, or dead Christians rising first to be caught up in the clouds with the Lord Jesus in the air, soon followed and joined by living Christians. The prophecy against Damascus, a judgment given for its involvement in a conflict against Judah in which the city would be destroyed and become a heap of ruins, never took place. And Egypt, a region continuously inhabited by human beings since the Paleolithic era 12,000 years ago, and a nation since 3100 BCE, did not suffer such devastation as was predicted for it in 587 BCE. The pharaoh to whom the prophecy was made is long dead. The rule of pharaohs has been extinct for millennia. The prophecy simply did not come true.

Genuine prophecy would require a supernatural intelligence with absolute knowledge of future events. Surely, if there were a god such as the one worshipped by Jews, Christians and Muslims, it would have the power of prophecy. The prophecies attributed to this deity would surely all be accurate to the letter and this is why apologists like Mr. Hellen are driven to accept as true the prophecies of the Bible. The Bible is said to be God's Holy Word and prophecies there are expected to be 100% accurate. There is no margin for error. However, as we've learned, the prophecies are not totally accurate. In fact, the only way to force some of the prophecies to mimic accuracy is to "put man's spin" upon the words of Scripture and twist, and contort, them into something that does not reflect their original shape. The Bible's prophecies are not 100% accurate. The hypothesis is falsified. The Bible is not inerrant. It is not the inspired Word of God.

NOTES

1. See http://www.brooklyntabernacle.org/church/ Return to text

2. Falsifiability in science merely refers to the testability of a hypothesis. If one cannot test whether an assertion is true or not, it is unfalsifiable and as such is useless in science. It is merely the possibility that an assertion can be proven false.

3. Sun sign or just sign "is actually a term used by astrologers which refers to a sector of the sky (like the segments of a peeled orange). Each of the 12 Signs is a 30-degree arc in a 360-degree circle around the Earth (360/12=30). It is the section of Space in which we can observe the Sun (by day) and the Moon and the other planets which are visible with the naked eye. From our point of observation, all the Planets appear to move within a narrow 7.5 degree band in the sky called the Zodiac (which comes from a Greek expression meaning circle of animals). (from Michael Star's Astrology FAQ) Return to text

4. See the article, "The Prediction of Tamara Rand" at the Museum of Hoaxes for further details. Return to text

5. For example, the authors of The New Testament: An Introduction note, "Since the gospel [of Matthew] presupposes the destruction of Jerusalem in A.D. 70 by its comment that the angry king destroyed the murderers of the king's son and burned their city (Matt 22:7; cf. 24:15-18 par. Mark 13:14-16)…it was probably written about a generation after Mark [which these authors date to shortly after 70 CE] (p. 264). David Arthur DeSilva, author of An Introduction to the New Testament: Contexts, Methods and Ministry Formation likewise mentions that "Matthew seems to make veiled references to Jerusalem's destruction (e.g. Mt 22:7; 23:38), which tend to point to a post-70 date" (p. 238) for the gospel's composition. Stephanie Buckhanon Crowder and Dennis E. Smith both agree in the Chalice Introduction to the New Testament that, "Many scholars maintain that the gospel of Matthew was written between 80-90 C.E...[b]ecause the author makes reference to the destruction of the Jewish temple in Jerusalem in 70 C.E..."(p. 152). And so on and so forth.

6. See, for example, Matthew 24:1-2, Luke 19:41-44, 21:24.

7. See, for example, Tim Callahan's book, Bible Prophecy: Failure or Fulfillment.

8. Internet apologist James Patrick Holding takes this approach in his article, "Preterist Exegesis in Paul."

9. This is how apologist Patrick Holding tries to excuse the prophecy's failure in his article critiquing Tim Callahan's book, Bible Prophecy: Failure or Fulfillment.

10. See Ezek. 29:1, "In the tenth year, in the tenth month, on the twelfth day of the month…" which, by the Jewish calendar, equates to January 7, 587 BCE on the modern Gregorian calendar.

SOURCES

Barton, John and John Muddiman eds. (2001) The Oxford Bible Commentary. Oxford University Press.

DeSilva, David Arthur (2004). An Introduction to the New Testament: Contexts, Methods and Ministry Formation. InterVarsity Press

Hellen, John. (2009) The Bible is No Fairy Tale! The Compelling Evidence Proving the Bible to be God's True and Inspired Word. Tate Publishing

Perrin, Norman and Dennis C. Duling (1982) The New Testament: An Introduction. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Publishers.

Scott, Eugenie C. (2009) Evolution vs. Creationism: an introduction. Second ed. University of California Press

Smith, Dennis E. ed. (2004) Chalice Introduction to the New Testament. Chalice Press